Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Surge: 100 Days and Counting : Super Rally?

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Bitcoin's Post-Halving Surge: 100 Days and Counting
Bitcoin's Post-Halving Surge
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An Introduction to Halving Bitcoin

A key feature embedded into the bitcoin code, its halving event helps to control the rate of new Bitcoin production. Every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined; this occurrence halves the benefits miners get for verifying transactions. Halving serves primarily to guarantee Bitcoin’s scarcity, unlike the inflationary character of traditional money. The halving occurrences assist control the rate of approach to the fixed supply ceiling of 21 million Bitcoin.
Historical Context and Halving’s Effects
The past of Bitcoin halvings reveals a clear trend of affecting the dynamics of the market. The first half-cut in 2012 reduced the mining reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC every block. Following halvings cut the prize even more; in the most recent occurrence on April 20, it dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Usually occurring after a wait of roughly 100 days, each halving has traditionally been accompanied by notable price gains.


New Information and Examination

New ETC Group study indicates that the positive effects of declining Bitcoin supply usually show up about 100 days after halved. Following last halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, this trend was noted. The study emphasizes that after this period the average excess performance—which gauges the variation in the price of Bitcoin before and after the halved—becomes statistically significant.
Statistical Discoveries


From the 100th day following halving, the performance difference becomes statistically significant according to the study with T-values higher than 2. This points to a really substantial positive change in the market behavior of Bitcoin after the halving. Crucially important in hypothesis testing, the T-value shows how much the sample mean differs from the population mean, therefore offering a gauge of dependability for the noted deviations.


Looking Forward: Will History Repeated?


The market is keenly observing if Bitcoin will maintain its past trajectory as we approach the 100th day since the most recent halves. According past research, the price surge of Bitcoin usually picks up steam following this milestone and frequently peaks significantly. Though historical trends offer a foundation, market conditions and other events can always affect the results.
For Bitcoin, the period following halving is crucial as it usually lays the ground for significant changes in the market. The issue is whether Bitcoin will follow its post-halving growth pattern as experts and investors wait for possible changes. The next several months will be crucial in deciding whether the bitcoin will once more challenge expectations and soar to fresh heights.

Halving Bitcoin Knowledge Halved Bitcoin


Designed to manage the supply of Bitcoin and preserve its scarcity, bitcoin halving is a major event in the cryptocurrency scene. It happens about every four years, or following the mining of 210,000 blocks on the Bitcoin network. The incentive miners get for contributing fresh transactions to the network is half during a halving event.

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For instance, miners got 50 BTC each block when Bitcoin originally started off. with the first halved, this reward dropped to 25 BTC; with the second halved, it dropped to 12.5 BTC, then so on. The most recent halved, in April 2024, cut the reward to 3.125 BTC per block.
This process keeps on until all 21 million Bitcoins—a cap imposed by Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin—have been mined. Halving events are vital as they slow down the pace of new Bitcoins generation, therefore influencing the dynamics of supply and price of Bitcoin. Though this is not assured, the decrease in supply usually results in more demand, which might push up the price of Bitcoin. This system guarantees that Bitcoin stays rare and supports its protection from inflation.

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